Gambler's Fallacy/Writing Secrets/66% returns on investment

	Gambler's Fallacy/Writing Secrets/66% returns on investment Dear all Today I will try to understand Gambler's Fallacy. Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or vice versa. It is also known as the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" or the "Fallacy of the Maturity of Chances". This belief is false, as the outcome of a random event is not influenced by the outcome of previous events. Here are seven examples of Gambler's Fallacy: A person flips a coin ten times and gets heads every time. They believe that the next flip will be tails, as the coin is "due" for a tails result. In a game of roulette, the ball lands on black for five consecutive spins. The player believes that the next spin is more likely to land on red, as black has already come up too many times in a row. A lottery player believes that a certain set of numbers is more likely to win because they have not been drawn in a long time, assuming the lottery is "due" to draw those numbers. A basketball player believes that they are more likely to make a shot if they have missed several in a row, assuming they are "due" for a make. A blackjack player believes that they are more likely to win the next hand because they have lost several hands in a row, assuming that they are "due" for a win. A person who regularly plays the lottery believes that their chances of winning increase the more they play, assuming that their previous losses increase the odds of a win in the future. A stock market investor sells their stocks because the stock price has gone up for several days in a row, believing that the price is "due" for a decrease. All of these examples demonstrate the Gambler's Fallacy, as they assume that the probability of an outcome is affected by previous outcomes, which is not the case. Each event is independent of the previous ones and the outcomes are determined by chance. **One Video I Enjoyed** Jim Simons is a renowned mathematician and investor. Known as the "Quant King," he incorporated the use of quantitative analysis into his investment strategy. In this video Cooper Academy tried to explain about his strategy to achieve 66% return per year. Jim Simons: How To Achieve a 66% Return Per Year (7 Strategies) https://youtu.be/cm7kkHtZiJA **Two Tweets I Enjoyed and Liked** How to avoid burnout https://twitter.com/matt_gray_/status/1622224066630352897?t=9_n4as9jRuXJ_1Gyc4g8BA&s=19 10 writing secret https://twitter.com/ItsKieranDrew/status/1601549570978336770?t=4JaP220vr7GGVxq2Z6X7dg&s=19 **Three New Websites I Enjoyed and Liked** Transform your text instructions into Excel formulas in seconds with the help of AI for free. https://excelformulabot.com/ Find captions and tags for every occasion and mood https://captionplus.app/ Find Clips in Fave Movies, TV, & Music using phrases https://getyarn.io/ **Three Quotes and Phrases I Liked** Those who make the worst use of their time are the first to complain of its shortness. —Jean de La Bruyère The world itself is never overwhelmed or confused— only we are, due to how we are engaged with it. We can never really be prepared for that which is wholly new. We have to adjust ourselves, and every radical adjustment is a crisis in self-esteem; we undergo a test, we have to prove ourselves. It needs subordinate self-confidence to face drastic change without inner trembling. —Eric Hoffer **Two Write Ups I Enjoyed and Liked** How Important Is Alone Time for Mental Health? In this post author described why alone time is important and how to spend time alone. https://www.verywellmind.com/how-important-is-alone-time-for-mental-health-5184607 45 days of silence - meditating 16 hours a day for 45 days https://www.emmatang.xyz/45-days-of-silence-meditating-16-hours-a-day-for-45-days **One Photo I Enjoyed and Liked** Raising the Flag on Iwo Jima, by Joe Rosenthal of the Associated Press Thanks Xoxo © 2023 Aritra Sarkar

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Mimetic Desire/ How to Cure Headache

Mimetic Desire/ How to Cure Headache Dear all Mimetic desire is a concept in sociology, philosophy, and psychology that suggests that our desires and wants are often copied or imitated from others. This means that we often desire things not because we truly want them, but because we see others wanting them, and this makes us want them too. Source: https://siboehm.com/articles/20/girard-for-non-philosophers Here are seven examples of mimetic desire: Fashion trends: When a particular style or fashion trend becomes popular, many people start wanting to wear the same clothes or accessories as others. Social media: When we see our friends or influencers on social media buying or using certain products or brands, we may feel a desire to do the same. Consumerism: Many people feel the need to keep up with the latest gadgets, cars, or other consumer goods simply because others have them. Romantic relationships: When we see others in happy and fulfilling relationships, we may feel a desire to find similar connections with others. Popularity: People often strive to be popular or have more followers on social media because they see others who are well-liked and admired. Fad diets: When a particular diet becomes popular, many people may try it simply because others are doing it, rather than because it suits their personal needs or lifestyle. Political ideologies: Many people may adopt certain political ideologies or beliefs because they see others who support them, rather than making independent decisions based on their own beliefs and values. Overall, mimetic desire highlights the powerful influence of social and cultural factors on our desires and wants, and the importance of being aware of our own motivations and preferences. Subscribed **One Video I Enjoyed** How to stop headaches using science based approaches. https://youtu.be/CGjdgy0cwGk **Two Tweets I Enjoyed and Liked** There's a 💊 drug (named Zolgensma) that costs $2.5mn (Rs 18 crore). Currently the world's costliest drug. Why is it so expensive? https://twitter.com/paraschopra/status/1381947695980453889?t=rjQ5YBhVD_hFm30i7s34Dg&s=19 Warren Buffett's letter analysed by Max Koh https://twitter.com/heymaxkoh/status/1574355388241043459?t=MGvTw_7j501RmSm5hQQXqw&s=19 **Three New Websites I Enjoyed and Liked** LifeClock is a fun way for visualizing exactly how old you are, down to the current millisecond. https://lifeclock.be/ Simple explanation of complex ideas in philosophy https://www.philosophybro.com Most Popular Tools at a single place. https://tinywow.com/ **Three Quotes or Phrases I Liked** Vision is not enough; it must be combined with venture. It is not enough to stare up the steps; we must step up the stairs. —Václav Havel Ironically, jobs are actually easier to enjoy than free time, because like flow activities they have built-in goals, feedback rules, and challenges, all of which encourage one to become involved in one's work, to concentrate and lose oneself in it. Free time , on the other hand, is unstructured, and requires much greater effort to be shaped into something that can be enjoyed. To win, you have to avoid losing.The first thing chess masters do after an opponent makes a move isn't to think about strategy or winning but rather to ask themselves: what's the threat? Avoid stupidity before seeking brilliance. **Two Write Ups I Enjoyed and Liked** Whenever a Tiger kills someone in the forest a red cloth is tied to a tree to mark the spot where they are killed and to show where a tiger has been hunting. A write-up on battle for survival in the Sunderbans. https://earthjournalism.net/stories/a-battle-for-survival-in-the-sundarbans Why are hyperlinks blue? https://blog.mozilla.org/en/internet-culture/deep-dives/why-are-hyperlinks-blue/ **One Photo I Enjoyed and Liked** Source: http://www.hellomaggiec.com/ Thanks Xoxo

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Baader-Meinhof phenomenon/Random number generator/

Dear all Shortly after buying my new mobile, I noticed that many people seemed to have the same mobile. In newspaper also same mobile advertisement floated. In metro also I heard people talking about the same mobile phone. Was that some sort of magic.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

	Week#6/ Baader-Meinhof phenomenon/Random number generator/ Dear all Shortly after buying my new mobile, I noticed that many people seemed to have the same mobile. In newspaper also same mobile advertisement floated. In metro also I heard people talking about the same mobile phone. Was that some sort of magic. Many people also feels the same for some of the things. This phenomenon is know as Baader–Meinhof phenomenon or frequency bias or frequency illusion. Subscribed The Baader-Meinhof phenomenon is when you suddenly notice something that you recently learned about or experienced more often than you would normally expect. Person notices a coincidence or pattern in their life and then notices more instances of that same coincidence or pattern afterwards. It occurs when increased awareness of something creates the illusion that it is appearing more often. Here are four examples of the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon that you may have experienced: You see a particular car on the street multiple times in the same day after only having seen it once before. You hear a particular word or phrase repeated multiple times in the same conversation shortly after having heard it for the first time. You notice multiple ads for a particular product on the same day after only having seen one prior. You hear multiple people talking about the same topic after having just learned about it. Suggested read https://www.damninteresting.com/the-baader-meinhof-phenomenon/ https://productiveclub.com/baader-meinhof-phenomenon/ News to ponder Three earthquake measuring -- 7.8, 7.6, and 6.0 -- magnitude on the Richter scale has devastated Turkey and Syria, while the impacting regions as far away as Cyprus (456 km away), Lebanon (874 km), Israel (1,381 km) and Egypt (1,411 km). **One Video I Enjoyed** Dejian Zeng spent 12 hours a day attaching one screw to iPhones. As part of his summer project, the NYU grad student went undercover for 6 weeks at a Pegatron factory in Shanghai. He lived on-site in a dorm with 7 other people and got to experience what really goes into making the popular mobile device. He tell the Insider Tech what it was like. **Two Tweets I Enjoyed and Liked** Landon | The Flippin' Millennial @LandonClost My uncle passed away from cancer when I was 16 years old. I've since spent 100's of hours researching how to avoid and fight cancer naturally. Here's what I found: 1:05 PM ∙ Sep 6, 2022 204,519Likes56,568Retweets Vidit @supermode_ Mckinsey charges $10,000 per day for a consultant at my level.....yeah👀 No its not for their problem-solving prowess but for phenomenal people skills. Here is the most powerful people skill I learned there:👇🧵 3:09 PM ∙ Oct 15, 2022 8,502Likes1,481Retweets **Three New Websites I Enjoyed and Liked** Graph view of Wikipedia https://blinpete.github.io/wiki-graph/?lang=en&query= When you are bored just use this website https://boredhumans.com/ RANDOM.ORG offers true random numbers to anyone on the Internet. The randomness comes from atmospheric noise, which for many purposes is better than the pseudo-random number algorithms typically used in computer programs. https://www.random.org/ **Three Quotes and Phrases I Liked** "Pay every debt, as if God wrote the bill."— Ralph Waldo Emerson You don't need a rarified job; you need instead a rarified approach to your work. Life group is a different kind of insurance. People talk a lot about medical insurance and life insurance when you get sick. But relational insurance is far more important. I didn't need my dad's money, but I could have used some of his friends. **Two Write Ups I Enjoyed and Liked** Does my son know you? Cancer patients thoughts. https://www.theringer.com/2022/3/3/22956353/fatherhood-cancer-jonathan-tjarks List of Good Habits for The 21st Century https://durmonski.com/self-improvement/list-of-good-habits/ **One Photo I Enjoyed and Liked** Uğur Gallenkuş is an Istanbul-based digital artist of world renown. His collages conscientiously address the widening global divide between the privileged and oppressed, weaving together misery and mirth, wealth and poverty and love and despair. Thanks Xoxo  2023 Aritra Sarkar

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Decision Paralysis/ Superpower Sleep/ Dear All, Came to know about a new term "Choice Paralysis". Choice paralysis, also known as decision fatigue or analysis paralysis, refers to the phenomenon where individuals are overwhelmed by the number of options available to them and are unable to make a decision. This can lead to procrastination, indecision, and dissatisfaction with the final decision made. Means too many choices resulting in unnecessary delay in decision making Eg. Choosing restaurant for dinner when so many options available. Choosing a dress (especially happens with girls 😜) when too many varieties available. Choosing right job when you have too many job offers. Rare nowadays. Choosing a toy out of many options available by your child. News to ponder PM Modi names 21 largest unnamed Andaman & Nicobar islands. Find out names here. India to become first major market to completely move to T+1 settlement cycle w.r.t share market. One Video I Enjoyed and Liked Sleep is your superpower | Matt Walker In this deep dive into the science of slumber, Walker shares the wonderfully good things that happen when you get sleep -- and the alarmingly bad things that happen when you don't, for both your brain and body. Two Tweets I Enjoyed and Liked Liam "The Cleaning Guy" @LiamKircher You're destroying your posture if you do this: 1:13 PM ∙ Jan 21, 2023 826Likes104Retweets Stable Investor @StableInvestor SIP (Trick) of 1% of the Home Loan amount. Many call it the SIP trick to compensate for home loan interest. What exactly is it? Here is the thread🧵that tries to explain this simple idea 👇👇 (1/n) 5:15 AM ∙ Dec 18, 2022 3,146Likes880Retweets Three New Websites I Enjoyed and Liked This website gives a visual representation of time for different zones. Post anonymous confessions online in this website. This website edits your PDFs online for free. It will make changes right away. Three Quotes and Phrases I Liked Train yourself to take nothing personally. Risk is always better than regret. If life were predictable, it would cease to be life, and be without flavor. Two Write Ups I Enjoyed and Liked Cultivating Compassion and Understanding. 27 Life-Changing Micro Habits That Require Only A Few Minutes One Photo I Enjoyed and Liked natgeoyourshot A post shared by National Geographic Your Shot (@natgeoyourshot) Thanks Xoxo © 2023 Aritra Sarkar

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𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆’𝘀 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘂𝗱.

 🎀 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆’𝘀 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘂𝗱. 🎀  

Who was responsible? Neither kings, nor priests, nor merchants. The 𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐞 a handful of plant ☘️ species, including 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐭🌾, 𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 🍚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐞𝐬🍟. 

𝙏𝙝𝙚𝙨𝙚 𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙨 𝙙𝙤𝙢𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙃𝙤𝙢𝙤 𝙨𝙖𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙨 , 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙫𝙞𝙘𝙚 𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙨𝙖.

Ten thousand years ago 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝙬𝙖𝙨 𝙟𝙪𝙨𝙩 𝙖 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙙 𝙜𝙧𝙖𝙨𝙨, 𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙮, 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙙 𝙩𝙤 𝙖 𝙨𝙢𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙈𝙞𝙙𝙙𝙡𝙚 𝙀𝙖𝙨𝙩. Suddenly, within just a few short millennia, it was growing all over the world.

(っ◔◡◔)っ ♥ 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐢𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐮𝐛𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐬? ♥

W𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐭 did it by manipulating H̾o̾m̾o̾ ̾s̾a̾p̾i̾e̾n̾s̾ to its advantage. This ape had been living a fairly comfortable life hunting and gathering until about 10,000 years ago, but then began to invest more and more effort in cultivating wheat. 

Within a couple of millennia, humans in many parts of the world were doing little from dawn to dusk other than taking care of wheat plants. It wasn’t easy. 

𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗹𝗼𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺. 

[1] Wheat 𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐧’𝐭 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞 rocks and pebbles, so Sapiens broke their backs clearing fields. 

[2] Wheat 𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐧’𝐭 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞 sharing its space, water and nutrients with other plants, so men and women laboured long days weeding under the scorching sun. 

[3] Wheat 𝐠𝐨𝐭 𝐬𝐢𝐜𝐤, so Sapiens had to keep a watch out for worms and blight. 

[4] Wheat 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 against other organisms that liked to eat it, from rabbits to locust swarms, so the farmers had to guard and protect it. 

[5] Wheat 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐲, so humans lugged water from springs and streams to water it. Its hunger even impelled Sapiens to collect animal faeces to nourish the ground in which wheat grew.

The body of Homo sapiens had not evolved for such tasks. It was adapted to climbing apple trees and running after gazelles, not to clearing rocks and carrying water buckets. 

𝐇𝐮𝐦𝐚𝐧 𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬, 𝐤𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐬, 𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞.

Studies of ancient skeletons indicate that the transition to 𝖆𝖌𝖗𝖎𝖈𝖚𝖑𝖙𝖚𝖗𝖊 𝖇𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖌𝖍𝖙 about a plethora of ailments, such as 𝐬𝐥𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐝 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐬, 𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐬. Moreover, the new agricultural tasks demanded so much time that people were forced to settle permanently next to their wheat fields. This completely changed their way of life .

𝙒𝙚 𝙙𝙞𝙙 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙙𝙤𝙢𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙖𝙩. 𝙄𝙩 𝙙𝙤𝙢𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙪𝙨.

This excerpt is taken from one of the best book of era 

Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind Book by Yuval Noah Harari

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The Curiosity Chronicle by Sahil and advice to 32 years self.

 Dear All,

Newsletter by Sahil Bloom is one thing which I liked every week. In this week's The Curiosity Chronicle he shared the answers given by some 90 year's old about what advice would they give to their 32 year old self.

Subscribe to my newsletter @nagerbazar for something different.

 Some of these are as follows:

Tell your partner you love them every night before falling asleep.Someday you’ll find the other side of the bed empty and wish you could.

Treat your body like a house you have to live in for another 70 years.Invest in keeping the foundation and structure sound. A little bit of regular maintenance can go a long way.

Do one good deed every single day, but never tell anyone about it.Pay for someone's coffee, take out the trash without being asked, let someone into your lane. A little bit goes a long way.

The "good old days" are always happening right now.

Allow your kids to fail. You will hate it, but it's so important.Without failure and suffering, there is no growth.

Words or phrases I liked

Prophane language: Came across this in a hospital which means abusive language.

Website I liked

Restoring old photos using AI for everyone.

Prepend 12ft.io/ to the URL of any paywalled page, and they will try their best to remove the paywall and get you access to the article.

Simple online GIF maker and toolset

for basic animated GIF editing.Here you can create, resize, crop, reverse, optimize, and apply some effects to GIFs.

Videos I watched and liked.

Congress MP and author Dr Shashi Tharoor is known for his vocabulary. Take this quiz with him to improve yours.

Professor Benjamin has an easy-to-learn, eight-step method for solving this mind-bending puzzle quickly and accurately—every time.

What I read and liked.

Julia Fawal explained in this blog post why you shouldn't split your bills precisely.

James Clear in this blog post explained how to build new habits by taking advantage of old ones. He is a wonderful writer and one of my best author.

Elon Musk Has 3 Rules for Managers. Here's a Closer Look at His Leadership Style.

Thank you

Xoxo

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Cobra Effect: When good becomes bad.

COBRA EFFECT

Photo Credit: https://unsplash.com/@nivedh_pkt

When the British ruled India, bureaucrats in Delhi concerned about the proliferation of venomous cobras in the city.

So they devised a plan to reduce the cobra population.

They started to offer bounty for every dead cobra.

Initially the plan worked really well.

After sometime, some savvy locals developed a business model:

Breed cobras

Chop of their heads

Turn in cobra heads and collect bounties.

When the government became aware of this, the reward program was scrapped. When cobra breeders set their now-worthless snakes free, the wild cobra population further increased

An incentive designed to reduce the cobra population actually increased it.

Based on this anecdote German economist Horst Siebert coined the term "Cobra Effect".

The cobra effect is the most direct kind of perverse incentive, typically because the incentive unintentionally rewards people for making the issue worse. The term is used to illustrate how incorrect stimulation in economics and politics can cause unintended consequences.

Once you internalize this framework, you see it all around you and in your organization.

Reference:

The Cobra Effect: Good Intentions, Perverse Outcomes

#Work #productivity 

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